In 2026, against the backdrop of plunging birth rates around the world, investors were focused on AI bottlenecks. Little did they know that the biggest bottleneck to artificial intelligence was, ...

Politics, wars, a global tightening cycle, doubts over AI capex: the wall of worry keeps rising. But the spark that would topple risk assets is missing. Our Q4 FICC outlook explains why to stay long ...

Higher rates have changed the opportunity set. Overweight High-Yield Credit, both within asset allocation and versus Private ...

One framework, from macro view to position.

MacroQuant recommends an underweight to equities and bonds, counterbalanced by a significant overweight to cash. The model is very bullish on the US dollar, slightly negative on gold and copper, and ...

The UK government's new first-time-buyer scheme should support homebuilders even as high mortgage rates continue to constrain the broader housing market. Your First Home will allow eligible buyers in ...

Our FX strategists turn tactically constructive on the dollar, as a widening real-rate gap, resilient US data, and supportive seasonality tilt near-term risks toward dollar strength. The global ...

Our US Equity strategists expect the Anthropic and OpenAI listings to open a critical part of the AI story to public scrutiny, while adding to an issuance wave that has already weighed on S&P 500 ...

September's Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply to 81.9 from 88.6, the lowest since 2014 and well below the 89 consensus, highlighting rising risks to US consumer and reinforcing ...

The US consumer is not benefitting from AI-related activity. Over the past 25 years, labor’s share of US national income has been in a structural decline. We have monitored cyclical developments in ...

Our Private Markets & Alternatives strategists see the data center debt scare as overblown. Nerves around AI financing are rising, but our colleagues attribute most of the fear to GPU lending rather ...

Regional Fed manufacturing surveys cooled in September but still point to solid growth. With today's Dallas Fed release, all five manufacturing surveys are in for September, and four of the five ...