You’ve heard a lot about Michigan. But Democrats may have bigger problems in states where voters don’t trust their governance ...

Over the weekend, Donald Trump hit yet another all-time approval rating low of net -23.5. As of today, he bounced back slightly to -21.9. That’s in large part due to a new poll from TIPP insights ...

Democrats’ surge in the polls that started in early September still hasn’t stopped. As of today, they’re up to D +8.9 on the generic congressional ballot. That’s a high point for the party this cycle.

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Here at Silver Bulletin, we’ve been predicting that AI would become one of the most salient political issues for quite some time. That hasn’t happened with the general public quite yet — just 1 ...

It’s not unreasonable to approach election polls from a position of mild — maybe even more-than-mild — skepticism. In some cases this year, they’re projecting remarkable things, like Democrats having ...

Pop quiz. Which Senate seat are Democrats more likely to flip: Ohio or Maine? This might seem like an easy question. In 2024, Kamala Harris won the Pine Tree State by 7 points, but lost the Buckeye ...

Silver Bulletin Subscriber Questions (SBSQ) has been dormant since April. This wasn’t really planned, exactly. SBSQ is a popular feature. But it’s time to reboot SBSQ. Please leave questions for SBSQ ...

In the history of Silver Bulletin/FiveThirtyEight election forecasts, I’m not sure there’s ever really been a case where we’ve been completely on the other side of the conventional wisdom — in other ...

Still Counting Episode 3 is out. Video version above, audio below. We’ll be publishing these each week here at the newsletter. But for faster access, please subscribe on YouTube or follow us on Apple ...