Our EM strategists are upgrading Brazilian assets, but they see the election rally as tactical rather than the start of a structural bull market. They lift local currency bonds and sovereign credit ...

German factory orders plunged in August, continuing a trend of weaker hard data indicators against the backdrop of improving business sentiment measures. Germany factor orders fell 10.6% m/m against ...

Energy inventories will determine whether global energy supply is improving enough to warrant lower prices. “Dark transits” of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz have increased thanks to a major ...

The US Q3 earnings season is about to begin. The stock market is priced for robust earnings growth over the coming year and will react poorly to any signs of tech-related earnings disappointment. A ...

The most bullish development for Brazil from the weekend’s elections was not the higher odds of a right-wing presidency, but the likely president’s (Flávio Bolsonaro) stronghold in Congress. Upgrade ...

Long-dated bond yields rose another 48 bps since our last missive, quite a move in just a month. And yet, equities have remained resilient. This suggests that the move in bond yields is due to ...

Rising rates don’t halt bull markets but real yields exceeding the economy’s potential long-run growth rate could. That relative level could lead to a stock-bond collision if it persisted long enough ...

The relative resilience of tech-related stocks to higher rates, in the face of more sensitivity to yields felt by the average stock, reflects the K-shaped dynamics in the real economy. Many investors ...

Our US investment strategists argue that the tipping point for equities lies not in the direction or absolute level of bond yields, but in real yields’ relation to the economy's underlying growth rate ...

The September ISM Services report reinforced the message that the US expansion is intact with little risk of overheating. Though the headline index was a tick short of expectations at 54.9 and a ...

ETS builds on BCA's global macroeconomic thematic research, adding sector and quantitative analytics to deliver a consistent framework that connects the dots from analysis to actionable investment ...